|
Analysis
Indian Muslims
and the 2009 Elections
Challenges and
Prospects of Political Success
 | |
voters stand in a queue outside a booth at polling station in Varanasi,
in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, April 16, 2009. (Reuters
photo) |
India,
the worlds largest democracy with a total of 714 million voters, is undergoing
these days a marathon election exercise over five phases which will conclude on
13 May. Results will start coming in from 16 May and the new parliament will be
in place on June 2.As usual, Indias 160 million Muslims, making up about 14
percent of the population, are taking part in these elections both as voters and
as contestants.
Indian
Muslims are the biggest minority group whose vote is critical in key swing
states such as Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the north, Assam in the northeast,
West Bengal in the east and Kerala in the south.
All
parties, including the BJP which is perceived as anti-Muslim, have fielded
Muslim candidates from places where Muslims may win as a result of large
concentration of Muslims in at least 80 out of the current parliaments 543
constituencies or in order to show that the concerned party cares about the
communitys political empowerment.
Indian Muslims have been
traditionally complaining that they are always under-represented in the national
parliament as well as in provincial legislative assemblies. In the outgoing
parliament there are 37 Muslim members out of their proportional entitlement of
76 seats. The highest number of seats Muslim could ever win was in 1980 when
they secured 46 seats. [See the
chart here, page 15]
| Indian Muslims are found in sizeable numbers in
over 80 constituencies, especially in north India. |
Under-representationThe Muslim
under-representation is due to a number of reasons, such as disunity in Muslim
ranks, major parties disinclination in nominating enough number of Muslims in
winnable constituencies and reservation of Muslim-dominated constituencies as
reserved seats for Dalits, the so-called untouchables, in addition to the
age-old trick of gerrymandering aimed at dividing Muslim-dominated pockets over
a number of constituencies in order to break Muslims strength.
Among
glaring examples is the nomination of actress Jayaprada from the traditionally
Muslim seat of Rampur by an alleged Muslim-friendly party. In Delhi, where
Muslims deserve at least one seat, no major party has nominated any Muslim in
these polls.
Indian
Muslims are found in sizeable numbers in over 80 constituencies, especially in
north India, where they can help any candidate win or lose by voting for or
against them. Muslims are concentrated in about 16 states where 97% Indian
Muslims reside, with 1% or more in each state.
They
have sizable concentration in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra,
Assam and Kerala. In another nine states, namely Jammu & Kashmir, Karnataka,
Rajasthan, Gujarat, MP, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Haryana they have a
lower proportion.
Constituency-wise, there are only 14 Muslim majority constituencies, in addition
to another 28 with high Muslim-concentration of above 30% and 60 other
constituencies where they constitute more than 20% of the electorate. All these
100 constituencies or so are targeted by secular parties to secure maximum
Muslim votes for their candidates.
| The Congress failed to act decisively on the
recommendations of the Sachar Committee which found out that Muslims
were at the bottom of the Indian society by any yardstick of
backwardness. |
Background Traditionally, Indian Muslims voted
for the Congress Party, but this started to change in mid-1970 as a result of
the excesses during the Emergency period.
As a
result, the Congress for the first time was voted out of power in 1977. The
demolition of the Babri Mosque in 1992 was the final proverbial straw that broke
the camels back and resulted in almost total boycott of the Congress party by
Muslims. Many other parties and coalitions ruled, as a result, and the Congress
could come back to power only in 2004, as the leader of a coalition called UPA.
The
half-hearted implementation of the Congress-led governments various pro-Muslim
schemes have failed to win back the trust of the Muslim voters. The Congress-led
government for the first time in India established a Minority Affairs Ministry
which has literally done nothing apart from disbursing a few thousand
scholarships to Muslim students. Even its meager budget for the last year was
not fully utilized.
The
Congress failed to act decisively on the recommendations of the Sachar Committee
which found out that Muslims were at the bottom of the Indian society by any
yardstick of backwardness. Sachar report disclosed that Muslim representation
has plummeted to as low as three and five percent in the government and public
sector companies.
The
Congress has also consigned to the cold storage the report of the Mishra
Commission which recommended 10 percent reservation for Muslims in government
jobs, schemes and bank credits. The Congress has consistently followed an
anti-Muslim policy in Assam which has a 30% Muslim population.
The
Congress failed to stop the anti-Muslim campaign in the name of fighting
terrorism which was unleashed by the previous BJP-led government which ruled
during 1999-2004. In fact, the campaign only intensified especially in states
ruled by the Congress like the Mahrashtra and Andhra Pradesh which have
witnessed some of the worst excesses, including extra-judicial killings, against
Muslims in the name of fighting terrorism.
The
Congress government at the Centre has also failed to take any action against the
tainted Gujarat government of Narendra Modi who presided over the pogroms of
2002 and still rules the state. The Congress government has steadfastly refused
a judicial enquiry into the cold-blooded murder last September by the police of
two Muslim alleged terrorist youths in what is known as Batla House
Encounter. As a result, Muslims are voting for all kinds of secular parties
in the current elections.
| A new phenomenon this time is the emergence of a
number of small Muslim parties. |
New
PhenomenonThe new phenomenon of small regional
parties has offered new choices to the Muslim voter as an alternative to
national political parties. Small Muslim parties are concluding alliances with
small regional parties for their mutual benefit.
A new
phenomenon this time is the emergence of a number of small Muslim parties.
Muslims already have the Indian Union Muslim League in the southern state of
Kerala (with 2-3 members of Parliament and a sizeable presence in the provincial
legislative assembly) and Majlis Ittehadul Muslimin in the southern city of
Hyderabad (one member of Parliament and about a dozen in the provincial
assembly).
A new
Muslim entrant from the last year is the Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF) in
the northeastern state of Assam which won nine seats in the provincial assembly
elections last year and expects to win 4-5 seat in the current national
elections. The AUDF has now stretched its wings to other states too and is
fighting elections in a number of northern states like Uttar Pradesh and
Maharashtra.
Another new entrant is the Ulama Council (UC) of Uttar Pradesh which emerged as
a protest movement against the Batla House Encounter. UCs popularity in the
Azamgarh area of Uttar Pradesh led it to enter the elections in a number of
constituencies in that state.
This is a new Muslim experiment which will stabilize by the time the next
general elections are held in five years times. For the first time since
independence in 1947, Indian Muslims are seeking to stand on their own two feet
to ensure their political empowerment. Earlier they used to be part of various
parties and thereby bound by the agendas and policies of those parties.
Ilyas
Azmi, a seasoned member of Parliament, candidly portrayed the position of
Muslims in various parties when he said recently that the position of Muslim
members of Parliament in their respective parties is worse than that of
slaves. These members are not allowed to have their own independent views or
air them in public without prior clearance with their leadership which is Hindu
even in the case of communist and socialist parties.
| Major Muslim organizations like the All India
Muslim Majli-se Mushawarat (AIMMM), Jamaat-e Islami Hind (JIH) and
Jamiat Ulama-e Hind are trying to empower Muslim voters. |
Empowering Muslim Voters There are said to be
no less than 22 small Muslim-led parties contesting elections mainly in the
north though their chances are slim. These parties include Peace Party in Uttar
Pradesh, Tamil Muslim Munettra Khazhagam in Tamil Nadu and Peoples Democratic
Council in West Bengal. They all claim to be secular parties working for the
weak and marginalized sections of society.
These
parties, including the UC, will at best only split Muslim votes and thereby
indirectly helping the Hindu extremist BJP to win elections as the Hindu vote
will be cast solidly for a single candidate while secular and Muslim votes will
be split among a number of candidates.
Major
Indian Muslim organizations like the All India Muslim Majli-se Mushawarat (AIMMM),
Jamaat-e Islami Hind (JIH) and Jamiat Ulama-e Hind are trying to influence
Muslim voters by advising them to vote for a Muslim candidate in Muslim-majority
seats and for strong and winnable secular candidates in other seats.
While AIMMM has concentrated this time round on a single demand, i.e.,
reservation for Muslims in government jobs and facilities, others like JIH have
issued elaborate charter of demands.
Muslim
organizations this time have refrained from supporting any single party.
Instead, they are supporting specific candidates belonging to various secular
parties based on the record of the party and the winnablity of its candidate.
The only exception is the Hindu communal parties, like BJP and Shiv Sena which
have a clear anti-Muslim agenda.
Even
these anti-Msulim parties have tried hard to show that they are not anti-Muslim
and have included in their agendas some promises for Muslim uplift. Muslim
organizations are also supporting Muslim candidates who are fighting elections
as independents.
| The change in the Indian part of Kashmir was
observed last year when people overwhelmingly took part in the
provincial assembly elections. |
Important Development. Another important
development in these elections is that one of the two wings of the separatist
Hurriyat Conference is not asking people this time round to boycott elections
while Sajad Lone, a leading Kashmiri separatist who is the leader of Peoples
Conference, has for the first time since 1988 decided to take part in the polls.
The
change in the Indian part of Kashmir was observed last year when people
overwhelmingly took part in the provincial assembly elections. Hitherto the
separatist groups had held that Kashmiris should not take part in elections
before the solution of the problem of Kashmir.
Presently, there are no truly national parties which may be in a position to
secure an overall majority in the next parliament and form a government on their
own. Moreover, there is no political unity even among the secular parties as
they operate more or less as regional or local parties.
For
Election 2009, three political formations have emerged, headed by the INC, the
BJP and the Left. This leaves out a few unattached parties which are now talking
of a fourth front.
A new
alignment will emerge after the elections in which many of the parties now in
the third and fourth fronts will go back to the Congress-led coalition.
Muslims will still be out of the political equation due to their disunity. |